In 2025, the US is still a promising market for the wood industry.

According to MBS Research , in 2024, major economies such as the US , EU and China will be affected by recession and prolonged inflation, causing consumer demand to decline, especially for non-essential items such as wooden products. Consumers tend to tighten spending, affecting the purchasing power of the market.

In addition, the Vietnamese wood industry is facing increasing challenges as major export markets apply stricter regulations on controlling legal timber origins, forest protection, green production and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the risk of trade fraud and anti-dumping lawsuits also pose competitive pressures.

However, Vietnam’s wood and wood products exports still achieved impressive results thanks to efforts to overcome difficulties, diversify markets and reduce dependence on traditional markets. Enterprises have proactively participated in international trade fairs, shifted from processing to product design, improved quality and developed new models. Notably, the number of enterprises owning FSC-CoC certification (certification of legal wood origin) has increased, helping Vietnamese wood products better meet the strict standards of the US and EU markets.

Regarding the value chain, according to Mr. Ngo Sy Hoai - Vice President of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association (VIFOREST), currently 77.4% of the wood industry's input materials come from domestic sources, the rest are imported from countries such as China, the US and ASEAN. Notably, wood exports to the US are on the path of strong recovery due to increased consumption demand from mid-2024. US importers consider Vietnam a key supplier, especially for wooden furniture products.

A key factor driving the industry’s growth momentum is the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates in September 2024. This move has helped cool down home loan interest rates, stimulate the real estate market and increase demand for home renovations, leading to a recovery in the wooden furniture market.

Experts predict that in 2025, the US will continue to be the main driving force for Vietnam's wood exports. Reduced shipping costs and increased consumer demand are expected to help export businesses receive larger orders. The FED is expected to continue cutting interest rates twice this year, contributing to stimulating the housing market, thereby boosting the consumption of wood and wood products.

Not only that, businesses expect the US government's tax policy during the new presidential term to facilitate the Vietnamese wood industry, helping to expand market share as consumer trends in the US change.

To seize this opportunity, Vietnamese enterprises need to continue to improve product quality, innovate designs, build brands, optimize supply chains and cut logistics costs to increase sustainable competitiveness. At the same time, state management agencies need to continue to improve support policies, create a clear legal corridor for enterprises to develop sustainably, and consolidate the position of the Vietnamese wood industry in the international market.