Shipping and port activities are more vibrant during the time the US temporarily suspends reciprocal tariffs
New Hope
The US's policy of imposing reciprocal tariffs on more than 180 economies, including Vietnam, has a direct impact on businesses in the export, shipping and seaport sectors. However, in the short term, the US's 90-day suspension of tariffs from April 9, 2025 is considered a golden opportunity for export businesses to take advantage of delivery before incurring higher costs or partners reduce demand. Shipping and seaport activities are therefore more vibrant and bustling than before, creating momentum for stocks in this group.
According to the General Department of Customs, by May 15, 2025, Vietnam's total export value of goods reached 157.5 billion USD, an increase of 13.3% over the same period in 2024, with the increase concentrated in a number of items such as computers, electronic products and components, machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts, and coffee. In contrast, the country's total import value reached 155.76 billion USD, an increase of 17.4% over the same period last year.
Recently, a surprising signal from the White House could change the global trade situation in a positive direction. Specifically, Mr. Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council revealed that US President Donald Trump could impose a tariff rate lower than 10% for countries that offer good deals.
This information raises new hope for the economies. Vietnam has concluded the second round of negotiations with the US in the spirit of harmonizing interests, the two sides have made some progress, identified groups of issues that have been agreed upon and groups of issues that need to be further discussed to reach an agreement in the coming time. The third round of negotiations will take place in June 2025.
The second driving force for shipping and port stocks comes from the prospect of rising freight rates, although the outlook for the shipping industry in 2025 is unpredictable due to the impact of US tariff policies, conflicts in the Red Sea and the context of ship oversupply. However, regarding the trend of freight rates, Guotan Junan Vietnam Securities Company believes that freight rates may increase by an average of 5% in 2025 and remain flat in 2026.
Besides, the recent recovery of the USD has benefited shipping and port businesses, as the value will be higher when converted to VND.
In addition, the positive business picture in the first and second quarters of 2025 helps maintain the attractiveness of seaport and shipping stocks. Last week, the cash flow into this group increased, some codes such as HAH , GMD, VOS increased, including the session on May 27, all hitting the ceiling.
Strong inner strength
Each enterprise in the seaport and shipping industry has its own story, helping to increase its attractiveness to investors.
For example, Vietnam Container Joint Stock Company (Viconship, code VSC ) and two subsidiaries have just continued to buy a large amount of HAH shares of Hai An Stevedoring Transport Joint Stock Company (Hai An), increasing the ownership volume to 17.11 million units, equivalent to an ownership ratio of 13.18%.
Specifically, from May 20 to 22, 2025, Viconship bought 473,200 HAH shares, Green Port Services Company Limited bought 496,600 HAH shares, Green Logistic Center Company Limited bought 383,000 HAH shares.
Sea freight rates are forecast to increase by an average of 5% in 2025 and remain flat in 2026.
According to Viconship's Board of Directors, the investment strategy in Hai An plays an important role in expanding and perfecting Viconship's supply chain. In recent years, the Company has focused on seeking opportunities and investing in businesses in the same industry to supplement its logistics chain business capacity. The 46% tariff policy from the US, if applied as announced by the US in early April 2025, could reduce the volume of exports to the US, especially textiles and electronics. However, Viconship is less dependent on the US market (accounting for only 3.9%), thanks to domestic and intra-Asia routes. Meanwhile, the Company has proactive plans to cope with the impacts of tariffs.
In 2025, Viconship aims to achieve VND 2,790 billion in revenue, a slight increase compared to the level achieved in 2024; this year's pre-tax profit target is VND 400 billion, down 23.8% compared to 2024, but up 32% compared to the previous forecast.
The company plans its profits cautiously, partly due to concerns about rising costs, partly due to great competitive pressure when berths 3 and 4 of Hai Phong Port and berths 5 and 6 of Lach Huyen Port - Hai Phong came into operation in the first quarter of 2025, along with Gemadept Joint Stock Company (code GMD) implementing phase 3 of Nam Dinh Vu Port.
At the end of the first quarter of 2025, Viconship recorded revenue of VND 682 billion, up 16% over the same period, and after-tax profit of more than VND 111 billion, up 58.9% over the same period. The company said that the production and business activities of its subsidiaries, especially the port clusters Vip Greenport, Xanh Greenport and Nam Hai Dinh Vu, all grew well in both revenue and profit.
For Hai An, the company has long-term growth prospects from expanding its Intra-Asia shipping routes amid the global supply chain shift and leveraging the capabilities of the shipping giant in the Zim - Hai An Joint Venture. The company has continuously expanded its fleet capacity, consolidated its market share in the container shipping industry, and brought about strong growth in revenue from ship operations. At the same time, the company benefits from the increasing trend of time chartering ships in the context of this year's ship supply not increasing much compared to last year.
In the first three months of 2025, Hai An recorded strong business growth, with revenue reaching more than VND 1,169 billion, up 66% and after-tax profit reaching more than VND 233 billion, up more than 293% over the same period in 2024. Hai An's revenue and profit in 2025 are estimated by Guotan Junan Vietnam Securities Company to grow by 16.8% and 14.1% respectively.
Similarly, the consolidated financial report for the first quarter of 2025 of Gemadept Joint Stock Company (GMD) recorded revenue of more than VND 1,276 billion, an increase of 27% over the same period in 2024; pre-tax profit reached VND 583 billion, a decrease of 17.5% over the same period last year due to the same period having an extraordinary revenue of VND 340 billion from port divestment, but if considering only core business activities, profit grew by 57%.
SSI Research said Gemadept plans to set aside VND5 trillion in cash to cope with short-term trade war tensions. In the second quarter of 2025, Gemalink port will open four new service routes to Europe, Africa, Canada and Brazil. Meanwhile, the company's customers are export enterprises expanding their services to non-US markets.
In particular, Gemadept has improved its competitive advantages (favorable port location, strong logistics ecosystem to provide a complete supply chain, has shareholder CMA CMG - the world's largest container shipping line and a member of Ocean Alliance), so the Company will be less affected by tariffs than other ports.
In 2025, despite concerns from US reciprocal tariffs, Gemadept is expected by SSI Research to maintain its growth momentum thanks to the need to stockpile goods before the new tariffs take effect and service fees are adjusted upward.
When the reciprocal tax policy is finalized, opportunities and challenges may coexist, but in the long term, maritime transport and seaports are still the group that experts assess as having the ability to rise up in instability, adapt and recover quickly from impacts.
Hai Minh